Biden hopes for mail
Probably, Biden can now only count on additional ballot counting, sent to election commissions of different states by mail. During the current elections, due to the coronavirus pandemic, more 100 million Americans voted early, of which about 65 million – by mail. Known, that most of those, who used the services of the post office, were democrats.
Bulletin processing, sent this way, can significantly delay the summing up. In some states, ballots in envelopes with a postmark, delivered no later than 3 November, will take for a few more days, and the counting may take weeks. for example, Ohio deadline for this – 28 November.
In another wavering state – Pennsylvania, where candidates also went head to head all the time, – “mailing bulletins” started processing only on Tuesday, on election day, and by law they can do it before 6 November. Political science portal FiveThirtyEight (“538”, name – by the number of members of Congress) considers, that changes in the Pennsylvania election results could be up to 21% of votes.
Beyond the President and Vice President, Americans on Tuesday chose 35 senators, 435 members of the House of Representatives, 13 state and territory governors, as well as local authorities. To win, the candidate needs to enlist 270 votes of members of the electoral college from 538. The number of electors in the college is equal to the total number of members of the Senate (100) and the House of Representatives (435) US Congress, the college also includes three representatives from the District of Columbia. The inauguration of the President-elect of the United States will take place 20 january 2021 of the year.
The Wall Street Journal: the unity of America will fail
Gerald Seibe, Washington executive editor of the publication, talks about, how elections 2020 years have deepened the rift in American society, what the European media wrote about.
“The outcome of the presidential race was not determined late Tuesday night, but one thing is clear: any thought about, that the political picture may look very different after a year of fierce debate and reflection and as a result of a cathartic presidential election, it seems, began to fade ", – the author writes.
Increased contradictions were also shown by polls, held on voting day. for example, white men "from the working class" voted for Trump, for Biden – белые женщины с высшим образованием.
The material says, that the elections did not show consensus on any of the important issues, voiced during the election campaign, like that, should a country be more concerned about public health or economic health, should Americans be thinking about the problem of systemic racism, и как правильно использовать растущее многообразие страны.
“Instead, controversy over all these issues, it seems, doomed to continue”, – the author predicts.
According to him, each of the contenders for the presidency had their own strategy, but as a result, they were not voted for by newly converted supporters, and they, who didn't like the second candidate.
“Two opponents of seventy-plus years fought until late Tuesday night without a clear result, but their battle confirmed, that none of them managed to build a bridge in even one of the main splits ", – констатирует Сейб.
In a hurry - make Wisconsin laugh
Donald Trump, in the night from 3 on 4 November, who learned about his leadership in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina, did not wait for the summing up and declared his victory. At the same time, the owner of the White House admitted, which wins even in those states, which did not count on. The Republican was particularly surprised by Wisconsin, which the, According to him, "And not really needed", because victory is already in your pocket. Considering, that then the advantage of Donald Trump was quite comfortable, you can understand the rush. However in the afternoon, when it was left to count about 10-15% of ballots, Joe Biden played about 100 thousand. votes in Wisconsin and Michigan and pulled ahead. This radically changed the alignment..
Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina, which should have been key to determining the winner, plummeted in price, and the voices of Nevada were unexpectedly decisive, traditionally supporting Democrats. In this state, the counting of votes was stopped at, when Joe Biden was served 588 252 newsletter, and for Donald Trump - 580 605. Nevada authorities said, that they will return to the process at nine in the morning 5 November. But in the evening 4 November, apparently, frightened of the impending crisis, decided to count the votes "without pauses". If Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina will remain with the Republican, it is six Nevada electors who will decide the fate of the duel. If a miracle happens, the current owner of the Oval Office could win the election with 272 voices. But, likely, the winner is Joe Biden with 270.
Nevada, you are welcome
US President Donald Trump
Photo: Global Look Press/Chris Kleponis/Keystone Press Agency
For the last 30 years only once - in 2000 year - the candidate won the US presidential election with a minimum majority of electoral votes. That lucky one was Republican George W. Bush, who secured 271 against 266 at Al Gore. Then the case went to the Supreme Court, but it didn't help the democrat.
Donald Trump has already called it very strange, that overnight his advantage in key states “began to magically disappear, as soon as they began to take into account unexpected ballot stuffing ".
By the way, in 2016 year the Republican won and in Wisconsin, and in Michigan. According to Yuri Rogulev, Director of the Franklin Roosevelt Foundation for the Study of the United States at Moscow State University, then these states believed the promises of a better life, however, the coronavirus and the economic crisis have forced their population to change their minds.
- The economic situation in these states was bad anyway. They actually traditionally voted for Democrats., but in 2016 they followed Trump. Then it was even called the uprising of the white working class.. Now, of course, words could not convince people. They looked in their wallets and went to vote, - the expert explained to Izvestia.
Nonetheless, perhaps, the greatest contribution to the possible defeat of Donald Trump was made by Arizona with its 11 electoral votes. Little of, that this state has long been in republican orbit, there is also a Republican governor. Which means, the incumbent president could not lose here in such a situation. Fighting on equal terms with Joe Biden in not-so-friendly Michigan and Wisconsin and a serious concession in Arizona means, that the American leader's team clearly miscalculated, when she planned winning combinations of states and slept through the threat in her yard.
How Trump Can Win
Так же как Байдену, Трампу необходимо сохранить лидерство в штатах, где у него сейчас преимущество (на карте они отмечены розовым цветом). И в дополнение к этому республиканцам необходимо отбить по меньшей мере один из «голубых» штатов, where Biden is leading now.
Перевес демократа в Неваде крайне небольшой. Чтобы перекрасить этот штат из синего в красный, it takes very little.
The picture of events for the president can become much more pleasant, if contrary to expectations it turns out, что присланные по почте бюллетени (которые были отправлены в день голосования, но могут прийти позже) заполняли в основном республиканцы или независимые избиратели, sympathetic to Trump.
Еще одна возможность для президента — это Аризона. Так же как в Неваде, there are only votes left to count, отданные по почте. Но в этом штате почтовое голосование — процедура более привычная, и поэтому аризонские демократы не получили от него столько же голосов, как в Неваде.
Лидерство Байдена в Аризоне намного более убедительное, но это не отменяет возможности значительных сдвигов.
Что касается Висконсина и Мичигана, то там ситуация развивается в неблагоприятном для президента направлении. Хотя Трамп сохраняет надежду на победу в этих ключевых штатах американского Среднего Запада, нужные цифры от него просто уплывают. А в Висконсине все голоса уже подсчитаны.
Photo: Reuters
